Kenya Met Warns of Very Strong El Niño Threatening Heavy Rains

Weather authorities issued an alert regarding a high probability of a severe climate event affecting the country later this year.

Forecasts indicate an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing, which could bring above-normal rainfall during the upcoming short rains season.

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) reported that enhanced rains are expected to begin in October 2026 and run through December.

While a strong event increases the likelihood of heavier downpours, meteorologists noted that the actual severity of local rainfall will depend on how the system interacts with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Projections show the strongest wet signals occurring in October and November across most regions. The anticipated weather pattern threatens critical infrastructure, with authorities warning of potential flash floods, urban inundation, and severe damage to roads and bridges.

Historical data shows that only five very strong ENSO episodes have occurred since 1950. Officials noted that heavy rain alone does not dictate disaster outcomes, as local drainage capacity, urban settlement patterns, land degradation, and advance preparation play major roles in managing risks.

County governments, disaster response agencies, and public works bodies have been urged to clear blocked drainage systems and inspect vulnerable sites before October.

Early preparation remains crucial to mitigating transport disruptions, health risks, and property destruction across vulnerable areas.